DEBATE TONIGHT – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  The Republicans will debate again tonight.  The race is becoming exceedingly bitter and at times vulgar.  I've heard that the candidates will have to go through metal detectors.   (Not really.)  From Reuters: 

CHARLESTON, S.C./MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Flaring tempers and sharp elbows may turn a debate of seven Republican presidential candidates into a seven-car pileup on Thursday with tensions between Donald Trump and rival Ted Cruz leading the way.

The sixth Republican debate, at the North Charleston Coliseum in the swing state of South Carolina, takes place at a tense time for the Republican field with the clock ticking toward Feb. 1 in Iowa, the first contest in the race to choose the party's nominee for the Nov. 8 general election.

"Everybody has to avoid making mistakes," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "If you mess something up in this debate you're going to have almost no opportunity to correct it."

The 9 p.m. EST debate features the top seven candidates ranked by Republican voters: New York real estate businessman and reality TV star Trump, Texas Senator Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

COMMENT:  I'm starting to sense a growing feeling of revulsion toward both the Democratic and Republican races.  Americans are yearning for first-class leadership, and I don't see a particular "wanting" for anyone on either side.  Dems are not worked up over Hillary.  A small number yearn for Bern, but I don't think Bern will make it.

On the Republican side, the vulgar but fascinating Donald Trump has tapped into voter anger, and is considered the frontrunner, but is hovering in the thirties.  More people are against him than are for him.  If he becomes the nominee, I wouldn't be shocked to see an independent candidate for president. 

There is no Reagan, who was both effective and likeable, a natural communicator.  A general-election race between Clinton and Trump might come down to who is the least disliked. 

Who could run as an independent?  The last time we had a serious independent candidate was 1992, when Ross Perot, who received 19% of the vote, probably spoiled President George H.W. Bush's chances for a second term.  In 2000, Ralph Nader, who got 2.74% of the vote nationally, may have cost Al Gore the state of Florida, and thus the election.

No sure thing this year.

January 14, 2016